COT Report Update – 8/4/2013

Update – 8/4/2013

Observations:

DX – dollar index – I do not trust the Fed and what the USD may do. This impacts every other commodity and every other foreign currency. The Fed MUST begin tapering soon. But until other countries also taper or become hawkish the dollar is going to continue to suppress the prices of the other futures in this list.

Treasuries are have all retraced somewhat but look to have found support for the time being.

AD – the aussie fell through its floor last week, and may continue down to 0.85. This has minor downward pressure on uranium, and the precious metals.

BP,CD – Pound and the Loonie have maintained support and look they may lift to test and create a range bound area with the recent lows being solid support.

KC – coffee is so utterly depressed now, that it may be that the only direction now is UP. If we get any tropical weather problems, heat, frost, economic strife or environmental/botanical problems coffee will rise quickly.

HG – copper has found its lower range support at $3.00 and now we’re waiting on any new housing issues to stress price and whether China will leak better GDP numbers soon. Housing tapering in the U.S. will test copper and any softness in China’s numbers may also drive copper below support.

C,S,W – the grains are all under pressure lower with their COTs having a bit more room to descend. Don’t look for higher grains until fall.

GC,SI – gold and silver have nearly built solid support levels but what more important is that we’ve got higher lows in the COT. This may mean that buyers are taking advantage of every dip in price to accumulate at these multi-year lows.

JY – the yen has put in higher lows in both price and COT – looking for higher prices there – this should help pressure the dollar lower.

NG – nat gas continues lower and may retest $3.00.

VIX – the volatility index has retraced down to extremely low levels. And with this continued Fed/Bernanke driven bull market we may not see a rise until Oct. Higher stock market will make the next correction all the more traumatic…

CL – crude oil has double topped. Its COT is higher than ever. The summer is more than half over so travel will abate. Egyptian tension is lessening, and the U.S. economy can’t get much better. Look for lower prices soon.

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