COT Report Update – June 2013

Updated – will update again on Sunday (to capture today’s prices)

  • DX: As expected the dollar has fallen off. But the boosts to the precious metals we would have expected failed to materialize.
  • TY,US,FV: Treasuries are finally dropping now that the QE is failing to add much to stimulate the U.S. economy. Notice that mortgage rates have jumped too.
  • AD: The Aussie is still floundering – the Australian government is doing it own easing, set on making sure the AUS does not see a severe recession.
  • BP: The pound has rebounded – finally.
  • CD: A bit of a bounce for the Loonie, oil is the lynchpin here.
  • CC: Cocoa is over bought on COT, but the range is so narrow in price that it may not fall far.
  • KC: Poor, poor coffee, all those independent growers in Central and South America – they jumped from growing coca to coffee and saturated the market. Don’t see much upside for them for quite some time.
  • HG: Copper – now here’s an anomoly, yeah, China’s mfg sector has scaled back, and the housing/lumber peaked and retreated but the bounce in copper like gold and silver just hasn’t come after the drop in the dollar.
  • HO: Heating oil – now this commodity is showing some of the lowest COT in its history. Why? Planet warming?
  • JY: Our yen has finally bottomed (like we said it would) and has returned up. How far will it go? Only the Japanese gov’mnt will say.
  • LN: The price on lean hogs is nearing multi-year highs. China did bid for and buy Smithfield…
  • LB: Lumber saw that pop and drop, still looking for lower support here.
  • NG: Nat.Gas has cycled lower, don’t see it settling below 3.5, especially with the dollar in retreat…
  • OJ: Orange juice has probably peaked here, upper long term resistance and an over bought COT says this goes lower.
  • PA: Palladium continues to surprise. One of the few industrial/precious metals, who’s quantities are controlled by-in-large by Russia, this one is hard to call. I see manipulation written all over it.
  • SI: Talk about dissapointing. Silver has failed to rally and the 21.00 support looks to be the point of last resistance in it’s continued fall.
  • SB: Sugar looks like it will hit 15 no matter what Brazil does to support its price.
  • W: Nothing much pushed up wheat even with the GMO scare two weeks ago. Monsanto continues to ruin the planet…
  • CL: Crude’s West Texas Intermediate continues to compress. A pop over $100 or a dive below $80? Who knows, but with the IMF nudging the U.S. Fed into maintaining easing – but the economic outlook waffling – who knows. A volatility squeeze play here in options would be the best bet.

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