COT Report Update – May 2013

For those of you who still follow the COT report, I try to keep it updated and Saturday mornings are when all the data is available.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/29771494/COTReport/COTReport.html

Dual version:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/29771494/COTReport/COTReportDouble.html

Technically speaking:

  • The dollar (DX) will have a hard time staying up in this range for much longer. When it falls everything else should inversely reciprocate.
  • The aussie (AD) and its reign above parity with the dollar may be at an end. What this means for gold/silver is questionable. But if the dollar pulls back the aussie may make a push above 1.0 again.
  • The pound (BP) remains severely suppressed.
  • The canadian (CD) has diverged from crude oil somewhat (CL “WTI”) they may see convergence here soon.
  • Cocoa (CC) has had a brief run, but it’s COT is back up fairly high.
  • Coffee (KC) remains under considerable supply pressure.
  • Copper (HG) has paused in its rebound. Chinese productivity numbers having put a drag on this commodity. A reversal in the dollar will see it spring back though.
  • Gold (GC) and silver (SI) are both at historic low COT numbers. And are also near past confluence price levels. It all depends on the dollar at this point. If Bernanke would just keep his fingers out of the massive debt pie we might see some rational behavior return to the markets.
  • The yen (JY) again, is also way down in its price and it’s COT which has bounced around at the bottom for months. The Japanese govm’et has expressed concern about further easing of the yen. I’d call this a bottom in the yen.
  • An interesting divergence is that between lumber (LB) and copper (HG). Lumber took off last fall (2012) and left copper in the sawdust. Recently though lumber has tapered way off, supply saturation and demand fulfillment most likely, and we may see a continued drift lower.

Of course the world is waiting for the next market correction… when and how deep… only Bernanke can say.

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