COT Report – 9/8/2013

DX – a continued pop in the dollar suppressed other broad commodities.

TY,US,FV – restarted their descent. Interest rates should start to climb again. Will this stymie the housing market?

AD – aussie has found a base – maybe. A push abouve .93 – .94 should be telling. As China is a major market for Australia’s commodities that market will influence the AUD’s return.

CC – cocoa has beat resistance and busted 2500. We are definitely in atmospheric COT levels now.

KC – coffee steady now for nearly 3 weeks. A push above 1.20 may be telling.

HG – copper continues to collect itself around $3.25. A weaker dollar should push this up over 3.5 within a month.

C – corn steady @ ~$5.00. A critical time for the grains in upon us.

EC – euro put in another higher low. Still looking for this to push to 1.35 and higher soon.

RB – gasoline, has it fallen off with the reduction in stress on Egypt and Syria? This is in opposition to its COT movement… and in opposition to crude oils move. Maybe be refineries have found supply.

GC – we got a nice pull back in gold and silver, something we were looking for. We’ve now the technicals to push to $1500.

JY – the yen is still trolling along the bottom. But with Tokyo’s win of the 2020 Olympics will this pop now?

LB – lumber has oscillated back up to resistance while the COT has fallen. Hard to call this. Is price leading or the COT? Rising interest rates will suppress lumber now but the housing market seems steady if slightly bubbled.

NG – natural gas has paused in its rise back to $4.00. With the liquified natural gas market starting to kick in and permits for trade being granted to LNG companies we may see demand for NG help this push back up.

PA and PL – palladium and platinum have fallen off much more than gold. Are we seeing a rebalance between these three?

RR – rought rice, here we go again. Looking for the COT to drop and for price to touch $15.00. This channel is uncanny!

SI – silver like gold has solidified its floor I’m seeing $27.00 by November.

VIX – the COT is up again this week, and the major markets all look like they’re preparing for further descent. It’s been a long while since we topped 25 in the VIX – time for a test me thinks.

W – wheat and corn have floored while soybeans have popped – is this a result of the demise of the Brazilian real?

CL – crude oil, higher AGAIN!? Crisis after crisis. When will it end. Generally about 2 months for this bumb bumb bumb in crude. We must be nearing the end – no? Time for a volatility spread trade. The USO $42.00 / $38.00 CALL/PUT spread is $.57 cents as I write this. All crude has to do is peal off down and this spread trade should pop to $1.00 easy.


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